产业结构、城市规模与中国城市生产率

【关键词】:产业结构;;关联效应;;城市门槛规模;;城市最优规模;;结构—规模协同效应
【摘要】:本文分析产业结构和城市规模对我国城市经济效益的协同影响机制,估计与产业结构相适应的最优城市规模以及在城市规模约束下产业结构转变的边际效益。使用地级及以上城市面板数据的计量估计显示,生产性服务业一制造业结构对生产率的影响取决于城市规模,城市需要达到一定的门槛规模方能从上下游产业关联中获得效益。随着城市规模的增大,城市经济效益发生先增长后下降的倒U型变化,而城市规模增大的边际收益则随产业结构向服务业转变而增加。我国大部分地级市的实际规模仍小于最优规模,因此在经济发达的大城市向服务型经济转型的同时,中小规模的地级市应该推动当地制造业的发展和人口集聚。
This paper analyzes the synergy effects of industrial structure and city size on productivity of Chinese cities,and estimates the optimal size of cities for a given industrial structure and the marginal benefit of structural upgrading under a constraint of urban scale.The panel data regression estimates of prefectural or higher level cities show that the effects of industrial structure on urban per capita output depend on size of the cities;a city must surpass a threshold size in order to benefit from the home market effects which stems from the linkages of upstream-downstream industries.As the urban population size increases,urban productivity experiences an inverted-U shaped progress and the marginal benefit of urban growth increases as the industrial structure shifts from manufacturing to producer services.The estimation also shows that most cities in China are smaller than their optimal sizes.Therefore,small and medium sized cities should develop manufacturing and promote agglomeration,while developed large cities transition from manufacturing-oriented economies to service economies.