中国养老保险的收支缺口和可持续性研究

【关键词】:养老保险;;人口老龄化;;隐性债务;;退休年龄
【摘要】:本文通过建立养老保险精算评估模型,预测了2010-2050年中国职工和居民全口径的养老保险收支缺口和政府隐性债务。测算结果显示,若假定未来政府通过财政补贴方式为养老保险体系融资,则2010-2050年养老保险资金缺口所形成的隐性债务折现到2010年,总额可达57.5万亿元,相当于2010年GDP的143%。其中,城镇职工养老保险形成的隐性债务占绝大部分,而城乡居民养老保险隐性债务相对较小。2050年,全口径的职工和居民养老金总支出将达同期GDP的13.77%,这基本接近欧洲一些高福利国家的水平。研究还发现,提高退休和领取养老金年龄、降低养老保险替代率能起到显著降低养老金缺口的作用,而提高养老保险投资收益率、提高生育率等措施作用有限。
Using a pension actuarial evaluation model,this paper estimates China's full scale(employees and residents) pension fund income's,expenditure and financing gap,as well as relevant implicit government deficits between 2010—2050.The results show that,if government keeps subsidizing the pension system in order to maintain a positive pension accumulated balance,discounted liabilities between 2010—2050 may amount to 57.5trillion,and equivalent to 143%of GDP at 2010 price.Urban employee pension deficit accounts for most of the liabilities,while resident pension liability is much smaller.Till 2050,total pension expenditure including retired employees and residents will account for 13.77%of GDP.This is more or less equivalent to the situation of current typical Europe high welfare countries.Scenario analyses demonstrate that raising retirement and pension benefit receiving age,reducing replacement rate can bring down financing gap significantly,whereas raising earning rate of pension fund,raising fertility ratecan hardly make a big difference.