中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响

【关键词】：产业结构合理化;;产业结构高级化;;经济增长;;经济波动
【摘要】：本文在测度产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化的基础上,构建了关于产业结构变迁与经济增长的计量经济模型,进而探讨了二者对经济波动的影响。研究结果表明:产业结构合理化和高级化进程均对经济增长的影响有明显的阶段性特征。相对而言,产业结构合理化与经济增长之间的关系具有较强的稳定性,而高级化则表现出较大的不确定性。产业结构合理化和高级化对经济波动的影响主要表现在不可预测的周期性波动方面,而它们的影响机制却截然不同。产业结构高级化是经济波动的一个重要来源,产业结构合理化则有助于抑制经济波动。总体上,现阶段我国产业结构合理化对经济发展的贡献要远远大于产业结构高级化。本文认为,政府在制定产业结构政策时,应在强调产业结构合理化的同时,积极突破制约产业结构高级化效应的限制条件,有效推进产业结构的高级化,充分发挥产业转型与升级对经济增长的持续推动作用。
The adjustment of industrial structure is currently a key issue in China,however,the effects of industrial structure on economic growth is not consistent in the literatures. In this paper,we develop a new measurement of industrial structure from the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure and specify a fixed effect model to explore the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. Futhermore,we consider the mechanism of the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure on economic fluctuations. The results showed that the rationalization of industrial structure and economic growth has a steady relationship and the optimization of industrial structure and economic growth has an uncertain relationship,but their impact mechanisms on economic growth are the same. The optimization of industrial structure is an important source of economic fluctuations,but the rationalization of industrial structure can avoid this fluctuation. Overall,the contribution of the rationalization of industrial structure to economic development is much greater than the optimization of industrial structure. In the policy making process,the government should give more consideration to the rationalization of industrial structure rather to the optimization of industrial structure.