中国真实发展指标测算及政策模拟

摘要： 克服了国内生产总值(GDP)指标的缺陷,真实发展指标(GPI)为判断经济的健康程度和地区发展趋势提供了更为准确的信息,实践证实可作为GDP的首选替代。基于GPI理论与方法考察,构建中国GPI指标体系,估算中国1978~2014年GPI的时间序列数据,并分经济开放度、减税、城镇化三个政策情景模拟我国的可持续发展趋势,从而提出对策建议。
Genuine Progress Indicator(GPI) is one of the first alternatives to GDP vetted by the scientific community and used regularly by government and non-governmental organizations worldwide. GPI can be used to measure sustainable development like green GDP. The paper constructs China's GPI framework. GPI values of China from 1978 to 2014 are estimated based on the framework. Economic openness,tax cuts and growth in urbanization are simulated based on GPI value. Some policy suggestions are given finally. Policies aimed at reducing environmental costs are necessary if China is to enjoy a sustainable pattern of non-declining economic welfare. China must pursue a higher rate of productivity in material and energy consumption in order to keep environmental pressures to a minimum level.