我国银行业资本缓冲的周期性及其经济效应研究——基于银行信贷供给机制的视角

摘要： 全球性金融危机引发了学者们对银行资本缓冲周期性及其经济效应的争论,银行计提资本缓冲会通过影响其信贷供给对实体经济产生溢出效应,因而研究其周期性问题意义重大。本文采用我国87家商业银行的数据,对我国银行业资本缓冲的周期性进行了实证研究。结果显示:我国银行业的资本缓冲整体上不具有周期性。但是,不同类型银行的资本缓冲却表现出差异化的周期性特征,特别是大型银行的资本缓冲具有逆周期性,其通过对信贷供给过度波动的约束作用,能在一定程度上缓解经济的周期性波动。本文的这些结论可为监管部门的资本监管改革提供经验支持,同时为逆周期资本缓冲工具的使用提供一定的决策依据。
The global financial crisis has triggered scholars' debates on the cyclicality of bank capital buffer and its economic effect.Bank capital buffer will generate spillover effects on the real economy by affecting credit supply,and the research on its cyclicality has important implications.Using data from 87 commercial banks,this paper tests empirically the cyclical effect of bank capital buffers in China.Our results show that there exists generally no cyclical effect and the implied hypothesis within the traditional test framework might not be valid either in China.However,for state-owned banks,there exists a countercyclical effect.Our conclusions have policy implication for implementing the capital buffer as a countercyclical tool effectively.